持有波克夏股票必能打敗大盤?
投資界最為人津津樂道的事跡就屬巴菲特的投資紀錄,他持有波克夏(Berkshire
Hathaway)52年間創造20.8%註1的年化報酬率,也就是說在1965年初投資1美元,截至2016年底可獲得1,972,595美元;同期間要是投資S&P 500,僅有9.7%的年化報酬率,相當於1美元成長至12,717美元,這就是複利效果長期下來造成的巨大差距!
只要是價值型投資圈的人大概都熟知這樣的故事,市面上也有不少人倡導學習巴菲特的投資模式,甚至建議乾脆把錢交給巴菲特管理,亦即買進波克夏股票,長期持有。本篇藉由分析波克夏的長期歷史記錄,供投資人檢視並自行判斷,持有波克夏是否仍然是一個有效打敗市場的投資策略。
或許有些人會反對,認為買進波克夏僅是投資一間公司,與把錢交給基金經理人不同;並表明巴菲特不是投資經理,只是一間公司的負責人與經理人,這樣的說法也有道理。然而熟知價值型投資的人若長期研究巴菲特、閱讀波克夏年報,多多少少能了解他經營公司的模式,就是類似投資經理人的行為:做資本配置,將可用資金投入在長期預期報酬率最高的事業,只是手段較為靈活,有時買進整間公司,有時買進部分股權;私人與公開市場皆是他投資的範圍,而且波克夏收取其所投資的公司盈餘、股息或資本利得會再配置到其他標的。同時巴菲特也表明自己屬於價值型投資人,重視公司買進價位與內含價值間的差距,是否具有很大的安全邊際(Margin of
Safety),並相當喜愛內含價值不斷成長的公司。
所以我們假設,長期下來,投資波克夏就相當於將資金交給巴菲特管理,只是以高於每股帳面價值的市價買進(PB=1.43註2),賣出時也以市價賣出(通常PB也會大於一倍);或者把持有波克夏假想成有一種靈活的人工智慧交易策略,可以完全複製巴菲特的手段。
【Table 1】
5年滾動
年化報酬率
|
BRK
|
S&P 500
|
5年滾動
年化報酬率
差距
|
1
|
28.28%
|
5.27%
|
23.01%
|
2
|
17.26%
|
4.08%
|
13.18%
|
3
|
32.87%
|
9.65%
|
23.23%
|
4
|
31.63%
|
7.56%
|
24.07%
|
5
|
16.73%
|
2.01%
|
14.71%
|
6
|
-1.42%
|
-2.35%
|
0.93%
|
7
|
0.01%
|
3.23%
|
-3.22%
|
8
|
4.91%
|
4.80%
|
0.11%
|
9
|
11.53%
|
-0.31%
|
11.84%
|
10
|
15.17%
|
4.22%
|
10.95%
|
11
|
51.57%
|
14.58%
|
36.99%
|
12
|
59.63%
|
13.75%
|
45.88%
|
13
|
42.89%
|
7.92%
|
34.98%
|
14
|
41.22%
|
13.92%
|
27.30%
|
15
|
52.66%
|
17.16%
|
35.50%
|
16
|
31.84%
|
14.66%
|
17.18%
|
17
|
42.18%
|
14.54%
|
27.64%
|
18
|
38.16%
|
19.73%
|
18.43%
|
19
|
30.64%
|
16.33%
|
14.31%
|
20
|
29.10%
|
15.21%
|
13.90%
|
21
|
46.74%
|
20.29%
|
26.45%
|
22
|
21.99%
|
13.15%
|
8.84%
|
23
|
26.25%
|
15.34%
|
10.91%
|
24
|
31.82%
|
15.88%
|
15.94%
|
25
|
28.26%
|
14.56%
|
13.70%
|
26
|
18.64%
|
8.70%
|
9.94%
|
27
|
36.91%
|
16.60%
|
20.31%
|
28
|
30.38%
|
15.22%
|
15.15%
|
29
|
31.39%
|
20.29%
|
11.10%
|
30
|
33.81%
|
24.08%
|
9.73%
|
31
|
22.42%
|
28.57%
|
-6.15%
|
32
|
17.20%
|
18.34%
|
-1.14%
|
33
|
17.27%
|
10.70%
|
6.57%
|
34
|
9.60%
|
-0.59%
|
10.19%
|
35
|
3.77%
|
-0.58%
|
4.34%
|
36
|
9.39%
|
-2.29%
|
11.69%
|
37
|
4.52%
|
0.54%
|
3.97%
|
38
|
7.77%
|
6.20%
|
1.57%
|
39
|
14.22%
|
12.84%
|
1.39%
|
40
|
2.75%
|
-2.19%
|
4.93%
|
41
|
2.43%
|
0.42%
|
2.01%
|
42
|
6.31%
|
2.30%
|
4.01%
|
43
|
0.84%
|
-0.24%
|
1.08%
|
44
|
-1.09%
|
1.67%
|
-2.77%
|
45
|
12.99%
|
17.95%
|
-4.96%
|
46
|
17.89%
|
15.46%
|
2.43%
|
47
|
10.42%
|
12.57%
|
-2.15%
|
48
|
16.28%
|
14.68%
|
1.60%
|
【Table 1】紀錄了波克夏與S&P 500的5年滾動報酬率及兩者差距,「5年滾動年化報酬率」是指持有每一個5年的年化報酬率,第一個是1965年初至1969年底,第二個是1966年初至1970年底……一直到第48個是2012年初至2016年底,利用滾動報酬率可以盡力排除隨意擷取一段區間就驟下錯誤的結論。
我們可以看到,在這48個5年滾動年化報酬率中,波克夏有6次跑輸S&P 500,其中最早的一次發生在第7個5年,也就是1971年初至1975年底,然而若投資人當時就對巴菲特失去信心,並在1976年決定改投資S&P 500,就會錯過波克夏自1976年初至2016年底23.61%的年化報酬率,遠超過S&P 500的11.32%。這裡告訴我們一件事:即使是5年資料都還太短,以至於無法判斷一位投資人是否傑出,或是投資策略是否可行;以這麼短的時間判斷,容易造成完全錯誤的結論。
【Table 2】
10年滾動
年化報酬率
|
BRK
|
S&P 500
|
10年滾動
年化報酬率
差距
|
1
|
12.45%
|
1.39%
|
11.07%
|
2
|
8.29%
|
3.65%
|
4.64%
|
3
|
18.07%
|
7.20%
|
10.87%
|
4
|
21.16%
|
3.55%
|
17.61%
|
5
|
15.95%
|
3.11%
|
12.84%
|
6
|
22.24%
|
5.78%
|
16.46%
|
7
|
26.35%
|
8.36%
|
17.99%
|
8
|
22.44%
|
6.35%
|
16.09%
|
9
|
25.50%
|
6.57%
|
18.93%
|
10
|
32.60%
|
10.50%
|
22.09%
|
11
|
41.36%
|
14.62%
|
26.74%
|
12
|
50.65%
|
14.14%
|
36.51%
|
13
|
40.51%
|
13.67%
|
26.84%
|
14
|
35.83%
|
15.12%
|
20.71%
|
15
|
40.39%
|
16.18%
|
24.21%
|
16
|
39.09%
|
17.44%
|
21.65%
|
17
|
31.70%
|
13.84%
|
17.86%
|
18
|
32.07%
|
17.51%
|
14.56%
|
19
|
31.23%
|
16.10%
|
15.12%
|
20
|
28.68%
|
14.88%
|
13.80%
|
21
|
31.94%
|
14.35%
|
17.59%
|
22
|
29.23%
|
14.86%
|
14.37%
|
23
|
28.30%
|
15.28%
|
13.02%
|
24
|
31.60%
|
18.06%
|
13.54%
|
25
|
31.00%
|
19.22%
|
11.78%
|
26
|
20.51%
|
18.22%
|
2.29%
|
27
|
26.67%
|
17.47%
|
9.21%
|
28
|
23.65%
|
12.94%
|
10.71%
|
29
|
20.00%
|
9.35%
|
10.65%
|
30
|
17.84%
|
11.07%
|
6.77%
|
31
|
15.72%
|
12.08%
|
3.64%
|
32
|
10.68%
|
9.08%
|
1.60%
|
33
|
12.42%
|
8.42%
|
3.99%
|
34
|
11.89%
|
5.91%
|
5.98%
|
35
|
3.26%
|
-1.38%
|
4.64%
|
36
|
5.86%
|
-0.95%
|
6.80%
|
37
|
5.41%
|
1.42%
|
3.99%
|
38
|
4.25%
|
2.93%
|
1.32%
|
39
|
6.29%
|
7.11%
|
-0.82%
|
40
|
7.75%
|
7.41%
|
0.34%
|
41
|
9.89%
|
7.68%
|
2.21%
|
42
|
8.35%
|
7.32%
|
1.03%
|
43
|
8.29%
|
6.96%
|
1.33%
|
【Table 2】為10年滾動年化報酬率,總計43個滾動10年,波克夏僅在第39個10年,也就是2003年初至2012年底跑輸S&P 500;而且我們可以看到波克夏與S&P 500的10年滾動年化報酬率差距不像5年期那樣不穩定,這也是我認為至少用10年來評斷一位投資者或交易策略較為合理的原因,不幸的是,大多數股市參與者皆以極短的期間(例如:月、季或一至二年)來判定績效好壞,不論法人或散戶皆如此。此外,由上表我們也發現波克夏與S&P 500的10年滾動年化報酬率差距逐漸縮減。
另外波克夏在第12個10年,也就是1976年初至1985年底締造了50.65%的年化報酬率,與S&P 500的差距來到了最大的36.51%。從歷史公開數據上來看,巴菲特給予股東的最佳報酬率是在這段時間,而非最早期的巴菲特合夥公司。巴菲特曾提及自己若資金量小,保證可以達到年化報酬率50%以上,在此10年,經由他的努力以及市場的評價下,確實以這樣的速度提升波克夏。
【Table 3】
15年滾動
年化報酬率
|
BRK
|
S&P 500
|
15年滾動
年化報酬率
差距
|
1
|
24.22%
|
5.61%
|
18.61%
|
2
|
23.24%
|
6.91%
|
16.33%
|
3
|
25.82%
|
7.44%
|
18.39%
|
4
|
27.51%
|
6.90%
|
20.61%
|
5
|
27.08%
|
7.60%
|
19.48%
|
6
|
25.36%
|
8.66%
|
16.70%
|
7
|
31.42%
|
10.38%
|
21.04%
|
8
|
27.47%
|
10.63%
|
16.83%
|
9
|
27.19%
|
9.73%
|
17.46%
|
10
|
31.42%
|
12.05%
|
19.37%
|
11
|
43.13%
|
16.48%
|
26.65%
|
12
|
40.42%
|
13.81%
|
26.61%
|
13
|
35.58%
|
14.22%
|
21.36%
|
14
|
34.48%
|
15.37%
|
19.10%
|
15
|
36.22%
|
15.64%
|
20.58%
|
16
|
31.91%
|
14.45%
|
17.46%
|
17
|
33.41%
|
14.75%
|
18.66%
|
18
|
31.50%
|
16.75%
|
14.76%
|
19
|
31.28%
|
17.48%
|
13.80%
|
20
|
30.37%
|
17.87%
|
12.50%
|
21
|
28.69%
|
18.91%
|
9.78%
|
22
|
25.09%
|
16.01%
|
9.08%
|
23
|
24.51%
|
13.73%
|
10.78%
|
24
|
23.82%
|
11.48%
|
12.33%
|
25
|
21.21%
|
12.22%
|
8.99%
|
26
|
16.68%
|
10.94%
|
5.74%
|
27
|
18.81%
|
11.53%
|
7.28%
|
28
|
18.11%
|
10.65%
|
7.46%
|
29
|
18.04%
|
10.50%
|
7.54%
|
30
|
12.58%
|
6.46%
|
6.11%
|
31
|
11.11%
|
8.05%
|
3.06%
|
32
|
9.20%
|
6.77%
|
2.43%
|
33
|
8.42%
|
5.46%
|
2.96%
|
34
|
7.38%
|
4.48%
|
2.90%
|
35
|
6.40%
|
4.68%
|
1.72%
|
36
|
9.72%
|
4.25%
|
5.48%
|
37
|
7.06%
|
5.01%
|
2.05%
|
38
|
8.11%
|
6.70%
|
1.41%
|
【Table 4】
20年滾動
年化報酬率
|
BRK
|
S&P 500
|
20年滾動
年化報酬率
差距
|
1
|
26.08%
|
7.80%
|
18.28%
|
2
|
27.73%
|
8.77%
|
18.96%
|
3
|
28.80%
|
10.39%
|
18.41%
|
4
|
28.29%
|
9.18%
|
19.10%
|
5
|
27.58%
|
9.45%
|
18.13%
|
6
|
30.39%
|
11.46%
|
18.94%
|
7
|
29.00%
|
11.07%
|
17.93%
|
8
|
27.16%
|
11.79%
|
15.37%
|
9
|
28.33%
|
11.24%
|
17.10%
|
10
|
30.62%
|
12.67%
|
17.95%
|
11
|
36.57%
|
14.48%
|
22.09%
|
12
|
39.53%
|
14.50%
|
25.03%
|
13
|
34.26%
|
14.47%
|
19.79%
|
14
|
33.70%
|
16.58%
|
17.12%
|
15
|
35.61%
|
17.69%
|
17.92%
|
16
|
29.47%
|
17.83%
|
11.64%
|
17
|
29.16%
|
15.64%
|
13.52%
|
18
|
27.79%
|
15.20%
|
12.59%
|
19
|
25.49%
|
12.68%
|
12.81%
|
20
|
23.14%
|
12.96%
|
10.18%
|
21
|
23.57%
|
13.21%
|
10.36%
|
22
|
19.60%
|
11.93%
|
7.66%
|
23
|
20.09%
|
11.80%
|
8.29%
|
24
|
21.35%
|
11.82%
|
9.52%
|
25
|
16.31%
|
8.43%
|
7.87%
|
26
|
12.95%
|
8.21%
|
4.73%
|
27
|
15.55%
|
9.15%
|
6.41%
|
28
|
13.53%
|
7.82%
|
5.72%
|
29
|
12.94%
|
8.22%
|
4.71%
|
30
|
12.68%
|
9.23%
|
3.45%
|
31
|
12.77%
|
9.86%
|
2.91%
|
32
|
9.51%
|
8.19%
|
1.31%
|
33
|
10.33%
|
7.69%
|
2.64%
|
【Table 3】與【Table 4】分別為38個15年滾動年化報酬率與33個20年滾動年化報酬率數據,波克夏在這兩種滾動報酬率從未輸給S&P
500,差距穩定度更勝滾動10年期,但觀察這兩個表格我們更可以確定,波克夏與S&P 500的年化報酬率差距逐漸收斂,從早期雙位數逐漸降為5%以內。未來投資人若持有波克夏10至20年,或許仍可以打敗大盤,然而從歷史數據來看,尤其是15至20年期,報酬率和大盤差距越來越小,可能的解釋為波克夏的資金越來越龐大,使得找尋便宜低估的標的因流動性或市值的問題導致無法投資,巴菲特曾說過:”It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a
lot of money”,因此投資人不應天真地認為現在買進波克夏未來必定可以打敗市場,倘若未來反轉,使20年期報酬率低於市場應該也不足為奇。
*註2:以2017/4/21收盤價計算